Tag Archives: predictions

This Week’s Highlights: December 31, 2022 to January 2, 2023.

2023 Next Maine Birds Predictions Blog.

OK, so it was technically first seen in 2021, but Steller’s Sea Eagle was the bird of the year. Or was it? It’s suffice to say, however, that my only photos of it from 2022 were not my photos of the year! Here it is in Georgetown on February 18^th.

It’s once again time for my annual Predictions Blog, where I view into my crystal binoculars and attempt to forecast some of the “new” birds to grace the State of Maine – and then my own personal state list – in the coming year.

Well, well, well, what a year of birding 2022 was here in Maine! Four new species were added to the all-time state list this season, and one of them was a complete shock. Let’s take a look at last year’s prognostications and see how I did.

2022 Maine Birds Predictions Blog

Barolo Shearwater was added to the state list based on a 2021 photo by Doug Gochfeld from well offshore in the Northeast Channel, according to the Maine Bird Records Committee. That was #21 on my predictions list for Maine’s next birds.

A Masked Booby (on my honorable mentions list) at Mount Desert Rock in August was perhaps a sign of things to come – it or another may have been photographed off Monhegan in late September.

Also on my honorable mention list was Broad-tailed Hummingbird that graced a Freeport yard from November 5^th through December 23^rd. The details and the full story can be found on my blog, here. One could make the argument that this should have made the cut, as it has been long-overdue to be identified in New England.

Maine’s 1st Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Freeport (Nov-Dec 2022).

Since the now-world-famous Steller’s Sea Eagle arrived at the tail end of 2021, it was not technically a new record in 2022. However, just about everyone saw it for the first time this year, and 2022 was definitely the year of the Steller’s Sea Eagle.

Shockingly, however, there was some debate about whether or not that was the bird, or even the raptor, of the year! Seriously. Since Steller’s Sea Eagle have bred on the continent and have been seen on several occasions in Alaska (and then “our bird” which was seen from Texas to Canada), one could argue that the raptor of the year was actually the Eurasian Marsh-Harrier that was discovered on North Haven on 8/25 and then found the next day at Weskeag Marsh in Thomaston (where it remained for less than 3 days). This was only the second record ever for the entire continent! The same bird resurfaced at the Troy Meadows in northern New Jersey in early November, but this is an incredible bird for North America. However, I would argue that the worldwide rarity of the Steller’s (only about 4,000 individuals) trumps the marsh-harrier, as it is quite common through much of the Old World. (These are the things birders like to argue about over pints of beer)

And no, the Eurasian Marsh-Harrier was most definitely not on my predictions list!

So with four new records only one of which was on my list, it’s obvious that predicting vagrancy is getting even more challenging. Climate change, land-use changes, rising and falling populations, perhaps even pesticide contamination or electromagnetic pollution is all conspiring to put odd birds in weird places. And, there are more birders looking, and much better communication.

While I would love to be “right” about my forecasts, we can now truly expect the unexpected, and one could argue almost any bird capable of flight (or long-distance swimming) could become Maine’s latest big twitch. But, if only for tradition’s sake, I’ll take a stab at my Next 25 Birds for Maine forecast:

1) Neotropical Cormorant
2) Black-chinned Hummingbird
3) California Gull
4) Spotted Towhee
5) Hammond’s Flycatcher
6) Bermuda Petrel
7) Graylag Goose
8) Little Stint
9) Audubon’s Shearwater
10) Common Shelduck
11) Anna’s Hummingbird
12) “Western” Flycatcher (Pacific-slope/Cordilleran)
13) Common Ground-Dove
14) Allen’s Hummingbird
15) Spotted Redshank
16) Limpkin
17) Ross’s Gull
18) Black-capped Petrel
19) Lesser Nighthawk
20) Elegant Tern
21) Heerman’s Gull
22) Painted Redstart
23) Hooded Oriole
24) Black-tailed Gull
25) Common Scoter

A Black-chinned Hummingbird is overdue for Maine, but unless it’s an adult male with his purple throat in good light, it’s likely going to take banding and measurements to identify (like this year’s Broad-tailed).

I’ve added Heerman’s Gull to the list thanks to a growing number of Eastern Seaboard records – most of which are likely the same individual moving up and down the coast, although it seems like a longshot to make it this far north. Limpkin also debuts after an incredible irruption in 2022 with extralimital records from as far north as Michigan and New York. Was this a one-off due to some drastic change in water or food levels in its limit range in Florida, or is this another sign of the “new normal” of tropical birds venturing northward? To make room, I’ve dropped Kelp Gull out of the Top 25 for now.

Heerman’s Gull, San Diego, CA, August 2011.

Personally, I added an incredible six birds to my own state list this year. I even predicted two of them: The flock of Black-bellied Whistling-Ducks in Camden that I twitched on 5/2 were #7 on my personal next list, while the flock of White Ibis in the Webhannet Marsh in Wells on 8/11 were #14 on my list.

Black-bellied Whistling Ducks.

The Sage Thrasher at Gilsland Farm was the first in line on my honorable mentions list, as it was long overdue for Maine to get it’s second. Likewise, the two Henslow’s Sparrows in Brunswick (7/6) and the now-famous Freeport Broad-tailed Hummingbird were both on my honorable mentions list, but had not cracked the top 25 just yet.

Sage Thrasher

Henslow’s Sparrow

Broad-tailed Hummingbird

Out of the blue was the aforementioned Eurasian Marsh-Harrier, which I happily got to see in Weskeag Marsh on 8/26. As Maine stakes its claim as the Raptor Rarity Capital of North America, I would not have wanted to miss this shocker.

As usual, I missed plenty of rarities too, although I was unable to chase many of them for various reasons (6 for 6 on chases this year is incredible…although it does help make up for all the times I did not see the Steller’s Sea Eagle!). American White Pelican (Grand Isle, 7/5; #1) and Franklin’s Gull (Sabattus Pond, 5/22; #3) are officially nemesis birds now. Other unchaseable potential state birds included Common Gull (Eastport, 2/17-23; honorable mention), Sandwich Tern (Mount Desert Rock, 7/6; honorable mention), and Western Wood-Pewee (banded at Riverpoint, Falmouth, 9/7; honorable mention).

As I approach the 400 species milestone, it’s not getting any easier, although I should hit the mark this year, based on current vagrancy trends! That’s my first prediction. As for what bird it will be, I believe it will be one of these 25. Although, nowadays, anything seems possible!

American White Pelican
Franklin’s Gull
Neotropic Cormorant
Brown Pelican
California Gull
Brown Booby
Slaty-backed Gull
Boreal Owl
Calliope Hummingbird
Common Ringed Plover
Graylag Goose
Cerulean Warbler
Gull-billed Tern
Hammond’s Flycatcher
Spotted Towhee
Pacific Golden-Plover
Wood Stork
Black-chinned Hummingbird
Brewer’s Blackbird
Yellow Rail
Ross’s Gull
Virginia’s Warbler
Common Shelduck
Common Gull
Heerman’s Gull

Brown Pelican records are increasing in the northeast. It’s just a matter of time for one to fly by me! San Diego, CA, August 2011.

This Week’s Highlights, 1/1-7, 2022

2022 Maine Birds Predictions Blog

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*No one could have predicted the bird of the year, err..century..err, ever. This magnificent Steller’s Sea-Eagle spent four days in Georgetown right around the New Year.*

I feel like I could have just recycled my blog from 2021. “…Worst Year Ever.” Ha. 2021 replied, “hold my beer!” That all being said, a complete summary would show the full picture, with all its ups and downs (and there were a lot of downs), but undoubtably with many happy moments contained within. That’s all beyond the scope of this blog. I’ll just stick to the birds.

Of course, nothing compares – or perhaps, ever will compare! – to the headliner of 2021: The Steller’s Sea-Eagle. No, this was not on my predictions list – or anyone else’s at the start of the year. That being said, following reports this summer in New Brunswick, November in Nova Scotia, and then December in Massachusetts, there is no doubt it would have been optimistically added to the list for 2022…had it not shown up in Georgetown on December 30^th (or perhaps earlier). This mega-of-megas, one of the world’s most extraordinary birds, might render almost any other first state record pedestrian, or at least anticlimactic.

At the very least, it does overshadow the only other chaseable first Maine record for this year: Redwing, a European thrush. What was the “bird of the year” until three days remaining on the calendar, this bird delighted many hundreds of birders at Capisic Pond Park in Portland at the end of January 2021 – which seems like eons ago! The first state record, however, actually came earlier in the month, when a Redwing – perhaps the very same individual – was a one-day wonder on private property in Steuben. Lucky for all, the next one/sighting of it showed up on public property and stayed around for about three weeks. Redwing was #16 on my “Next 25 Species for Maine” list.

And finally, a Masked Booby surprised observers on Mount Desert Rock on August 9^th. With increasing observations of tropical seabirds north of the Gulf Stream, this is less shocking than it would have been a few years ago.

Three first state records in one year is pretty good, and the quality of this year’s roster is impressive. How will 2022 compare?

Therefore, my list of next 25 species to occur in Maine receives just a few tweaks.

1) Neotropical Cormorant
2) Graylag Goose
3) California Gull
4) Spotted Towhee
5) Hammond’s Flycatcher
6) Bermuda Petrel
7) Black-chinned Hummingbird
8) Common Shelduck
~~9) Trumpeter Swan (of wild, “countable” origin)~~ *Edit, 4/1. See Below*
9) Audubon’s Shearwater – on “hypothetical” list, but I think the record is good.
10) Little Stint
11) Anna’s Hummingbird
12) “Western” Flycatcher (Pacific-slope/Cordilleran)
13) Common Ground-Dove
14) Allen’s Hummingbird
15) Spotted Redshank
16) Painted Redstart
17) Ross’s Gull
18) Black-capped Petrel
19) Lesser Nighthawk
20) Barolo Shearwater (a good record, with photographs, unlike my “it has to be this” sight record!)
21) Elegant Tern
22) Kelp Gull
23) Black-tailed Gull
24) Hooded Oriole
25) Common Scoter

***EDIT, 3/31 – When a Trumpeter Swan arrived in Scarborough Marsh, it was noted as the 2nd State Record. I realized that the 2011 bird from Fortune’s Rock Beach in Biddeford was indeed added to the “official” state list. I had counted it on my own list (so no change below), but I never followed up on its status, apparently. With the rapidly expanding introduced populations in the Northeast, along with increasing amount of states “declaring” the bird “established,” I’m shocked it’s taken this long to get a second one. The predictions list has been updated accordingly.***

Personally, I was fortunate to add two birds to my own state list this year. And they were good ones!

The aforementioned Redwing got things started. It was not on my Top 25 list because I expected it to be a one-day wonder in some far-off place, never to be seen again. It was. But then it, or another bird – there were several Redwings in the Northeast part of the continent last winter – debuted at Capisic. That was fun.

Did I mention there was a Steller’s Sea-Eagle? That was my 391st species in Maine!

So neither of my state birds were on my Predictions list. I’ll be OK though, all things considered.

And, as usual, there were also a handful of potential state birds for me that I did not see. Franklin’s Gull appears to be on its way to becoming my nemesis, with another one this year: a one-day wonder at the Sanford Lagoons on 9/9. It was #3 on my list.

A Sandwich Tern at Mount Desert Rock on 7/6 was on my Honorable Mention list, as was Brown Booby, which has started to become regular north of Cape Cod. There was one off of Biddeford Pool on 7/8 ahead of Tropical Storm Elsa, followed by one on Mount Desert Rock August 2^nd through 9^th (not an easy place to chase!).

So a few tweaks to my list for my next additions to my personal state list are as follows:

1) American White Pelican
2) Neotropic Cormorant
3) Franklin’s Gull
4) Brown Pelican
5) Graylag Goose
6) California Gull
7) Black-bellied Whistling-Duck
8) Brown Booby
9) Slaty-backed Gull
10) Boreal Owl
11) Calliope Hummingbird
12) Common Ringed Plover
13) Cerulean Warbler
14) White Ibis
15) Gull-billed Tern
16) Hammond’s Flycatcher
17) Spotted Towhee
18) Pacific Golden-Plover
19) Wood Stork
20) Ross’s Gull
21) Black-chinned Hummingbird
22) Brewer’s Blackbird
23) Yellow Rail
24) Virginia’s Warbler
25) Common Shelduck

So let’s see what ~~2021~~ (edited: 2022) brings to the Maine birding world. A return to a sense of normalcy would be a nice start, however.

*I am overdue to luck into an American White Pelican in the state!*

2021 Maine Birds Predictions

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It might “only” have been a second state record, but the Rock Wren that was discovered along Marginal Way near the Perkin’s Cove parking lot in Ogunquit in November was a state bird for everyone who enjoyed it during its long stay that continues right through today.

2020 was definitely a different year. “Worst year ever” was a common refrain by year’s end, but don’t tell that to 2021 which seems to be taking up the challenge so far. I’ve written this blog for over a decade now, but this was the first one written about, and during, a national crisis that was so deadly that many birders stayed home for much of the year. Before spring had arrived in Maine and the deadly COVID-19 pandemic had fully arrived in Maine, trips were cancelled, many folks stayed closer to home if venturing out at all, and many birders avoided crowded seasonal hotspots. I wrote about birding in a pandemic in this early spring blog, but a small silver lining to this tragedy was the huge growth in birding, especially in the backyard. I was even interviewed about this in the New York Times this summer.

By fall, the growth in birding and bird-feeding and the new online community connections made while stuck at home yielded even more opportunities to see amazing birds and add some really spectacular rarities to brand-new life lists. A massive incursion of birds from the western US was underway throughout the East this fall, and this resulted in some of the most incredible “mega” rarities, such as Rock Wren and Bullock’s Oriole. The first chaseable Rufous Hummingbird in many years was another real crowd-pleaser and was made accessible by gracious hosts.

Nonetheless, there were not any first state records detected this year. Therefore, my list of next 25 species to occur in Maine for 2021 remains unchanged:

Neotropical Cormorant
Graylag Goose
California Gull
Spotted Towhee
Hammond’s Flycatcher
Bermuda Petrel
Black-chinned Hummingbird
Common Shelduck
Trumpeter Swan (of wild, “countable” origin)
Audubon’s Shearwater – on “hypothetical” list, but I think the record is good).
Little Stint
Anna’s Hummingbird
“Western” Flycatcher (Pacific-slope/Cordilleran)
Common Ground-Dove
Allen’s Hummingbird
Redwing
Spotted Redshank
Painted Redstart
Ross’s Gull
Black-capped Petrel
Lesser Nighthawk
Elegant Tern
Kelp Gull
Black-tailed Gull
Common Scoter

Despite such a great year for rare birds in Maine, I actually only added two birds to my own state list however. But they were good ones! But first, let’s check in with last year’s prediction list to see how I did…at least for the birds, the rest of the year, no, I did not predict.

Of course, there was (is) the Rock Wren (Honorable Mention) in Ogunquit (photo above), but for me, the bigger one was the Say’s Phoebe in New Gloucester on 9/24. It was #4 on my list, but my #1 nemesis bird.

As usual, there were also a handful of potential state birds for me that I did not see. Common Ringed Plover (#12) on Seal Island in September and a Sooty Tern (Honorable Mention) on Matinicus Rock following Tropical Storm Isaias were obviously beyond my reach, obviously, a Franklin’s Gull (#5) in Lamoine on 11/5 did not linger, and a Yellow Rail (#22) was kept secret. The big miss however was the Golden-crowned Sparrow (Honorable Mention) in October at a feeder in Abbot that I just did not chase for a variety of reasons, including how busy the fall was at the store.

So a few tweaks to my list for my next additions to my personal state list are as follows:

American White Pelican
Neotropic Cormorant
Franklin’s Gull
Brown Pelican
Graylag Goose
California Gull
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck
Slaty-backed Gull
Boreal Owl
Calliope Hummingbird
Common Ringed Plover
Cerulean Warbler
White Ibis
Gull-billed Tern
Hammond’s Flycatcher
Spotted Towhee
Pacific Golden-Plover
Wood Stork
Ross’s Gull
Black-chinned Hummingbird
Brewer’s Blackbird
Yellow Rail
Loggerhead Shrike
Virginia’s Warbler
Common Shelduck

So let’s see what 2021 brings to the Maine birding world. A return to a sense of normalcy would be a nice start, however.

My favorite rarity photo of the year, however, was the Freeport Bullock’s Oriole feeding in front of the Maine state flag!

2020 Maine Birds Predictions Blog

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DSC_0190 edit_edited-1
After missing Maine by just a few miles in 2018, it’s only a matter of time before we see the state’s first Neotropic Cormorant – a species that is rapidly expanding northward. Be sure to double-check a lone cormorant in a tiny pond or river!

As we put 2019 to bed and begin 2020, we have our eyes set on the birding future. As for the future of birding, well, that’s a blog for another day, but for now, what about the next “new birds” to be seen in Maine?

Yup, it’s once again time for my annual Predictions Blog, where I view into my crystal binoculars and attempt to forecast some of the “new” birds to grace the State of Maine – and then my own personal state list – in the coming year.

But first, let us check in with my 2019 Predictions post, and see how I did.

The epic 2018 was going to be hard to follow – in fact, who knows if we’ll ever see a year as exceptional for new birds like that. While an above-average five new species were added to Maine’s state list in 2018, the infamous Great Black Hawk is a headliner for the ages.

We came back to Earth in 2019, with only 1 or 2 new species for Maine. The first, was a Zone-tailed Hawk in Bridgeton on May the 4^th. This was #18 on my predictions list for next new species to be found in Maine following several regional sightings over the past few years.

I say 1-2 because on October 30^th, I found a Barolo’s Shearwater in Maine waters, just west of George’s Bank. The problem was it was a single-observer sight record and that’s hard for a functioning and respected rare birds records committee to accept as a first state record. So who knows what Maine’s will do.

Barolo’s Shearwater was on my honorable mention list, but I certainly did not expect to see it; I would have assumed it would have been photographed from a NOAA fisheries research ship in the summer in deeper waters near the continental shelf, or perhaps immediately following a hurricane.

With only 1-2 new species for Maine in 2018, I’ve only made a few minor changes to my forecast, including the debut of Black-capped Petrel. Therefore, my updated predictions for the next 25 species to occur in Maine for 2020 is now:
1) Neotropical Cormorant
2) Graylag Goose
3) California Gull
4) Spotted Towhee
5) Hammond’s Flycatcher
6) Bermuda Petrel
7) Black-chinned Hummingbird
8) Common Shelduck
9) Trumpeter Swan (of wild, “countable” origin)
10) Audubon’s Shearwater – on “hypothetical” list, but I think the record is good.
11) Little Stint
12) Anna’s Hummingbird
13) “Western” Flycatcher (Pacific-slope/Cordilleran)
14) Common Ground-Dove
15) Allen’s Hummingbird
16) Redwing
17) Spotted Redshank
18) Painted Redstart
19) Ross’s Gull
20) Black-capped Petrel
21) Lesser Nighthawk
22) Elegant Tern
23) Kelp Gull
24) Black-tailed Gull
25) Common Scoter

Personally, I added a respectable 5 species to my own Maine list this year as well, including my long-sought #1 (and #1 nemesis): Great Skua. We scored one in Maine waters on our cruise – the aforementioned cruise that resulted in the Barolo’s Shearwater. Whether you have respect for your state records committee or not, functioning ones are not the “list police” that tell you what you can and cannot count. After much review, study, and discussion, I am confident I saw a Barolo’s Shearwater, so I am putting it on my list. Since I don’t submit my list the the ABA, eBird, or anyone else, I get to make my own rules! But sorry folks, if you are playing the listing game, you have to play by the listing rules.

Regardless, I did not have Barolo’s on my own prediction list, so for this particular game, it definitely does not count. But prior to getting my #1 bird, I also was lucky enough to be leading a group on Monhegan and was minutes away when my #2 bird – Eurasian Collared-Dove – was discovered(only the second ever in Maine…for now).
IMG_6195-edited-edited

We were at a trade show in Portland when a Tundra Swan (#7 on my list) was spotted at Dunstan Landing in Scarborough Marsh, so we skipped out for a spell and successfully “twitched” it. It was a welcome break from being indoors all day, and it was an easy 15-minute chase.
IMG_6871_edited-1

Last, but definitely not least, was the Harris’s Sparrow at a feeder in Levant that I was lucky enough to see with friends on December 8^th…my 385^th species in Maine, but only on my list of honorable mentions. But I’ll call predicting 3 our of 5 new state birds a win!
L1160347_HASP1B-edited L1160377_HASP2_edited-1

Then, as always, there were the misses. American White Pelican (#5) is becoming a nemesis, with several brief sighting in Portland on May 16^th, and another bird in Aroostook County in August. I worked hard for post-Hurricane Dorian rare terns in late September, but missed out on a Gull-billed Tern (#17) at Hill’s Beach on 9/28.

Not in my top 25, but no less disappointing to miss was Brown Booby that was spotted on and off, here and there, for perhaps much of the summer and a Tropical Kingbird in East Machias on 10/31. Much worse, however, was the dead Purple Gallinule found under the wires at Sandy Point on 10/19.

So with some big changes at the top, my updated list for my own next 25 species in Maine looks quite different.

1) American White Pelican
2) Neotropic Cormorant
3) Graylag Goose
4) Say’s Phoebe
5) Franklin’s Gull
6) Brown Pelican
7) California Gull
8) Black-bellied Whistling-Duck
9) Slaty-backed Gull
10) Boreal Owl
11) Calliope Hummingbird
12) Common Ringed Plover
13) Cerulean Warbler
14) White Ibis
15) Gull-billed Tern
16) Hammond’s Flycatcher
17) Spotted Towhee
18) Wood Stork
19) Ross’s Gull
20) Black-chinned Hummingbird
21) Brewer’s Blackbird
22) Yellow Rail
23) Loggerhead Shrike
24) Virginia’s Warbler
25) Common Shelduck

IMG_7069_edited-2
Maybe 2020 is the year for this nemesis of mine in Maine to come in for a landing in front of me!

FIELDFARE in Newcastle (and a rare April case of Rarity Fever!)

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Last week was an incredible week in Maine birding. First up was the state’s first Vermillion Flycatcher that appeared on Hog Island on Monday the 17^th. While it was #15 on my list of “Next New Birds for Maine,” HOW it was discovered defied imagination: it was seen by on observer watching the Hog Island Osprey Cam, as the black-and-scarlet little bird sallied for insects from the platform. Simply incredible.

Then on Wednesday, a long overdue(#10 on my predictions list) Fieldfare was discovered in Sheepscot Village in Newcastle. No, it wasn’t within a flock of thousands of wandering American Robins of the subspecies/clinal extreme from Newfoundland, it was in a front yard with a handful of “normal” robins. And Jeff Cherry saw it on his way to work.

I have been very busy of late with the new book, spring business at the store, the peak of the flight at the Bradbury Mountain Hawkwatch, the obligatory spring yardwork, and all of those usual things in life, plus – and most importantly and distractingly – our dog’s failing health. With Jeannette running the Boston Marathon on Monday, chasing the Vermillion fly wasn’t in the cards for me. Neither was skipping out on the 7,000 seed delivery on Wednesday morning when the Fieldfare was found.

But when the bird was reported again at 2:30pm, I dropped what I was doing and raced up to Newcastle. I spent a couple of hours unsuccessfully looking for the bird. A Vesper Sparrow was a small consolation prize.

Now, I don’t chase very often, but a first state record within an hour’s drive is usually fair game. And I really like Fieldfares. And I’ve wanted to see one in Maine (or anywhere else in North America) for a long time. I’ve daydreamed about finding one as I searched through wintering robin flocks in orchards or migrants passing Sandy Point in late fall or Bradbury Mountain in the spring.

While it was not seen on Thursday, but I made a dumb decision of heading inland to look for a possible waterbird fallout. There was no such waterbird fallout. My first of year Ruddy Ducks at Sabattus Pond and a singing Louisiana Waterthrush at the Papermill Trail in Lisbon were the highlights. Not a Fieldfare.

My book release party was Thursday night, and I was down in Salem, Massachussetts for a book signing and presentation to the Essex County Ornithological Club on Friday night. The Fieldfare was refound on Friday afternoon.

During a wet and dreary – but fairly productive, actually – birdwalk on Saturday morning, the Fieldfare was reported again, and it continued to be reported for regular intervals throughout the day. And as the cold and rainy day tempered business in the afternoon, Jeannette says “you should probably go” despite having plans to chase it with friends on Sunday.

So I went. And after a mere fifteen minutes, it popped out into the open. FIELDFARE!

In addition to being my 375^th species in Maine (although it just fell out of the top 25 of my personal next birds in Maine), it was a new “ABA-area” bird for me. This was a good one. I spent an hour watching it for a few minutes at a time, as it hopped between a copse of dense scrub and young trees and a mowed field, foraging with a small group of American Robins for a few minutes before disappearing again into the brush.

After about an hour, a total of 24 American Robins flew up from various corners of the fields and into the tops of some nearby Red Maples, where it lingered for about 5-10 minutes before flying off towards the center of town.
IMG_2822_FIEL1,4-22-17

Drizzle, fog, and distance precluded very good photos, but I did Facebook Live the sighting for about 30 seconds…just because.

Of course, I was semi-responsible as I headed back to work, while a few other folks relocated the bird much closer to the road in the village. Oh well, I still had Sunday morning.

Terez Fraser, John Lorenc, Erin Walter and I drove east and met up with Paul Doiron and Kristen Lindquist, and about 50 other fellow birders. It was not being seen, so people were beginning to split up and check other areas, besides the fields across the pond from 611 Sheepscot Road, where the bird was most often seen (including by me in the previous day). So the 6 of us began to mosey down a promising side road, and as we strolled back to the corner, we saw the crowds were on the move.

It was seen in roughly the same spot (other side of the island of trees between the fields on the other side of the pond), but most people had scattered by now, so only a lucky few saw it (and apparently saw it pretty well). Unfortunately, it had disappeared into the larger island of trees by the time we got to the edge of the pond.

So we waited. And waited. And then waited some more. At least it was nice out.
Fieldfare_twitchers,4-23-17_edited-1

Then a couple of hours later, it was spotted in the leaf litter within the dense, young woods. It was glimpsed by many, frustratingly missed by others, and seen well by no one over the course of about 45 minutes.

Unfortunately, I had to force my carpool to depart (although we were all very much ready for lunch by then) to head back to the store for a meeting, which was frustrating to me as I had to pull my friends (only 2/3rds of which had unsatisfying glimpses) away from the stakeout. I was also the genius who suggested we walk first and caused us to miss that initial, decent observation. Well at least we had a great lunch at the Montsweag Roadhouse! (And yeah, I did see it decently at one point, but not like I wanted).

But such is birding life.

More frustrating to me is the selfish birder who decided to walk down through the woods, opposite the group of more than 50 patient people, pishing (which thrushes don’t respond to, by the way) as he went. At one point, when the bird was coming out in the open, people could see this dumbass through their scopes, and he clearly flushed the bird back into the deeper depths…where it was not, as of at least 3:00pm that day, seen again.

While one might be able to argue he pushed the bird into our view, it seemed tough to argue that he didn’t directly ruin the opportunity for it to come out into an open edge for all to see, including those who had driven in from several states away. Of course, we all know who it was, and we all know how selfish some birders can be. And frankly, if there was one prick in the state of Maine who would act this way, it would be that guy. Thanks, buddy.

Anyway, we had a beer at Montsweag and that made me feel a little better.

Moving on…

So in the course of about a week, there was a Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in East Machias (also on Monday morning), a Vermillion Flycatcher in Bremen, and a friggin’ Fieldfare in Newcastle. I feel a bit hamstrung right now to hit the field as hard as I like to find out what else might be out there. Perhaps I’ll find the next one tomorrow…

The 2017 Maine Bird Predictions Blog

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Yup, it’s that time of year again. Not just time to celebrate the end of 2016 (is anyone really upset to see this year end?) and ring in the new, but reset the ol’ Year List (if you keep such a thing) and look forward to the avian wonders of 2017.

That means it’s time for my annual Predictions Blog, where I view into my crystal binoculars and attempt to forecast some of the “new” birds to grace the State of Maine, and my own personal state list, in the coming year.

But first, let us check in with my 2016 Predictions post, and see how I did.

Two birds were added to the cumulative Maine list in 2016. Incredibly, both were on Seal Island! A Great Knot on July 23rd followed an Ancient Murrelet in May that was later seen (presumably the same bird) at Petit Manan Island and then Machias Seal Island. While Ancient Murrelet was on my radar, and was part of my lengthy honorable mention list, Great Knot most definitely was not! In fact, this was one of the most amazing vagrant records in the state in some time.

My predictions for the next 25 species to be found in the state therefore has not changed too much. The new list is now:

1) Neotropical Cormorant
2) Graylag Goose
3) California Gull
4) Roseate Spoonbill
5) Spotted Towhee
6) Hammond’s Flycatcher
7) Bermuda Petrel
8) Black-chinned Hummingbird
9) Common Shelduck – with a recent spate of records in Eastern Canada, including three birds in New Brunswick in December,a pattern of vagrancy is definitely emerging. Provenance will always be a question however, as this species is kept in captivity. However, we used to dismiss every Barnacle Goose – for example – as simply an “escapee,” but its clear many are of natural vagrancy. Increases in the species in Iceland are a good sign that some of these recent records are of wild birds.
10) Fieldfare
11) Audubon’s Shearwater – on “hypothetical” list, but I think the record is good.
12) Little Stint
13) Anna’s Hummingbird
14) “Western” Flycatcher (Pacific-slope/Cordilleran)
15) Vermillion Flycatcher
16) Common Ground-Dove
17) Allen’s Hummingbird
18) Redwing – one in New Hampshire in March was a “near-miss!”
19) Western Wood-Pewee
20) Spotted Redshank
21) Zone-tailed Hawk
22) Gray Flycatcher
23) Ross’s Gull
24) Black-tailed Gull
25) Common Scoter

Meanwhile, I was very pleased to add six species to my own Maine list this fall. First up was the Black-throated Sparrow in Winter Harbor, which I visited on January 17th. Because it was discovered before I posted my Predictions Blog last year, I can’t count that as a prediction! But you can be sure I was happy to put this stunning southwestern sparrow on my state list anyway.
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My only self-found addition was my 6th ranked species: Western Grebe. I found one at Simpson’s Point in Brunswick on April 17th. It’s always much, much sweeter to find, rather than chase, a new state bird!

Adding American Three-toed Woodpecker to my list was just a matter of finding the time and putting in the effort. In Mid-July, Evan Obercian and I used it as an excuse to spend a weekend around Baxter State Park, which eventually yielded a pair of American Three-toed Woodpeckers along Telos Road.

A long-staying King Rail near Moody Point in the Webhannet Marsh was my 4th addition of the year. It was very high on my honorable mention list, but I left it off the ranking this year.

My Washington County Tour in August once again produced a Sabine’s Gull, and once again it was in Canadian waters, despite our best efforts to follow it across the border. Therefore, I was elated when one was discovered at Sabattus Pond on October 29th. This was my only “drop what I was doing and rush out the door” twitch of the year. It was worth it. I really like Sabine’s Gulls.

And certainly last but not least was the Bullock’s Oriole in Camden that Luke Seitz and I drove up to see on November 25th. Another bird high on my Honorable Mention list, but it too was not on the official Top 25.

Great Skuas were again seen with regularity off of Bar Harbor, but I missed them on my paltry few trips offshore again this year. The nemesis continues! There was also a one-afternoon wonder Harris’s Sparrow in Belgrade in November.

But with my #1, #6, and #13 “next species” checked off, my updated list for my own next 25 species in Maine now reads:

1) Great Skua
2) Eurasian Collared-Dove
3) Graylag Goose
4) Say’s Phoebe
5) American White Pelican
6) Neotropic Cormorant
7) Fork-tailed Flycatcher
8) Tundra Swan
9) California Gull
10) Franklin’s Gull
11) Black-bellied Whistling-Duck
12) Slaty-backed Gull
13) Yellow Rail
14) Boreal Owl
15) Calliope Hummingbird
16) Cerulean Warbler
17) White Ibis
18) Gull-billed Tern
19) Hammond’s Flycatcher
20) Loggerhead Shrike
21) Ivory Gull
22) Roseate Spoonbill
23) Spotted Towhee
24) Virginia’s Warbler
25) Common Shelduck

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Bullock’s Oriole on 11/25 in Camden

The 2016 Maine State List (and my own) Predictions Blog.

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The second record (and perhaps the first verified one) for Maine of Black-throated Sparrow was found in Winter Harbor on New Year’s Day, and continues through today, January 6th. I was tempted to chase it yesterday, but instead I am left to hope it sticks around until the end of next week when I return from a short business trip. Fingers crossed!

Before it arrived, I had begun to put together my annual list of the next 25 species to be found in Maine. I then follow that up with my own State List predictions, and no, Black-throated Sparrow was not on that list!

I know, I know, you’ve been awaiting this with baited breath for this. So without any further ado, let’s get started with the annual Maine State Birds Predictions List.

First, a quick recap of 2015.

Only one species was added to the state’s all-time birdlist, a Surfbird, which was discovered at Biddeford Pool in March. It was not a species on anyone’s radar, and it was most definitely not on my Predictions List for 2015!

But I did make several changes to my Next 25 Species for Maine list, and moved things around a bit. So here are the NEW prognostications:
1)Neotropical Cormorant – The new #1! With populations expanding in the Midwest and observations of vagrants increasing around the East, this one is only a matter of time now!
2) Graylag Goose
3) California Gull
4) Roseate Spoonbill
5) Spotted Towhee
6) Ross’s Gull
7) Hammond’s Flycatcher
8) Bermuda Petrel – see notes in last year’s blog entry at the link above.
9) Black-chinned Hummingbird
10) Fieldfare
11) Audubon’s Shearwater – on “hypothetical” list, but I think the record is good.
12) Little Stint
13) Anna’s Hummingbird
14) “Western” Flycatcher (Pacific-slope/Cordilleran) – Hope it calls! After a spate of reports in the Fall of 2015, this is another western bird increasingly being detected well outside of range.
15) Vermillion Flycatcher – Ditto.
16) Common Ground-Dove – A virtual irruption of this bird this fall, including one as close to Massachusetts had me thinking we would have added this in 2015. Maybe one is still out there awaiting discovery.
17) Allen’s Hummingbird
18) Redwing
19) Western Wood-Pewee
20) Spotted Redshank
21) Gray Flycatcher
22) Black-tailed Godwit
23) Brown-chested Martin
24) Black-tailed Gull
25) Common Scoter

As for me, I added three birds to my personal Maine State List in 2015:
A) Gyrfalcon – Wells, 1/17/15 (Ranked #5). This is one I wanted for a while! It was seen sporadically between Wells Harbor and Salisbury, Massachusetts for about a month. If first showed up while we were away at a trade show, but luckily, I caught up with it shortly after our return. I saw it on the 17th, and managed some photos (my blog entry also includes more background about the sighting), but on April 5th, Jeannette got the better shots!
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B) I also caught up with the aforementioned Surfbird on March 22nd (Definitely not on my list!) and Jeannette got these photos when we visited it again two days later.
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C) Clapper Rail – Scarborough Marsh, 9/22. I had it as an “Honorable Mention,” a list that I also keep to work off of to come up with each year’s respective Top 25.
IMG_6223_CLRA1,JonesCreek,9-22-15

I missed a Franklin’s Gull on Sebasticook Lake in November, as it appeared just before I took a trip, and departed shortly after my return. There was also a one-day wonder on Stratton Island in Scarborough in June. With an unprecedented incursion of Franklin’s Gulls into the East this fall (the Sebasticook Lake bird clearly preceded the events that brought record numbers to New Jersey and several birds to Massachusetts and New Hampshire), I thought this would be my fall – and I definitely worked for one! But alas.

My two trips off of Bar Harbor this year did not yield a Great Skua (but a September trip did give me my 3rd South Polar Skua in the state!), and once again my summer went by without a trip up north for American Three-toed Woodpecker.

Therefore, I predict that my next 25 species in Maine will be:
1) American Three-toed Woodpecker
1A) Black-throated Sparrow! OK, I know this does not count as a prediction, but still…
2) Great Skua
3) Eurasian Collared-Dove
4) Graylag Goose
5) Say’s Phoebe
6) Western Grebe
7) American White Pelican
8) Neotropic Cormorant
9) Fork-tailed Flycatcher
10) Slaty-backed Gull
11) Tundra Swan
12) Franklin’s Gull
13) Sabine’s Gull
14) Black-bellied Whistling-Duck
15) California Gull
16) Yellow Rail
17) Boreal Owl
18) Calliope Hummingbird
19) Cerulean Warbler
20) White Ibis
21) Gull-billed Tern
22) Hammond’s Flycatcher
23) Loggerhead Shrike
24) Ivory Gull
25) Ross’s Gull

Well, there ya have it! We’ll check back next year to see how I did!

2015 Maine State List Predictions

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It’s that time of the year again! Time for me to look into my birding crystal ball, and make random guesses…err, insightful, educated, prognostications about what the next year will bring to Maine and birders’ state lists.

But first, let’s, as usual, review the previous year. For the full list of 2014 species predictions, you can visit my blog from last January here.

Two species were added to Maine’s all-time list in 2014, a Brewer’s Sparrow on Monhegan in May, and a Crested Caracara in Unity (and later in Norridgewock) in August. While both species were on my “long list” for future additions, neither made the top 25. Following the report in the spring of 2014 of a Crested Caracara in New Brunswick (the 2013 caracara in Nova Scotia – and NJ – was apparently not a fluke…albeit distinctly possible to have been the same individual), there’s little doubt Crested Caracara would have made it onto the list this year. But I don’t update the list as the year progresses, so alas, no credit for me.

Meanwhile, perhaps even more remarkable, was the Tufted Puffin seen sporadically off of Machias Seal Island in June and July. Without getting into geopolitical boundary disputes, I believe both Maine (waters to south and east of island at least) and New Brunswick (definitely when it was on land) can claim this bird. While the puffin was not technically new for Maine, it was the first record – and unequivocal record – since a somewhat-disputed record claimed by Audubon in 1834.

Next, I would like to call attention to #23 – Bermuda Petrel, an annual species that is on my list, but this is the lowest it has appeared. However, it very already occurred in Maine. Geolocator (“data-loggers”)data from researchers puts the birds well into the Gulf of Maine, and even within the margin of error, perhaps several birds have appeared within the usual boundaries association with state bird lists (it is well beyond the 3 mile political zone).

“Conservation and At-Sea Range of Bermuda Petrel” by Jeremy Madeiros, Bob Flood, and Kirk Zufelt in the June-July 2014 issue of North American Birds (V.67, no. 4) includes a map (p.555) of hundreds of locations from around the Atlantic Basin, including about a half-dozen within the Gulf of Maine.

(Members of the American Birding Association can read the article in its entirety here)

Whether or not we “believe” geolocators are accurate enough to document an occurrence is a discussion for another time, but I predict a bird will be seen or confidently tracked into nearby waters in the future. Therefore, that species has moved up the list. Neotropic Cormorant’s continued increase to the north and east, with increasing frequency of vagrants, bumps that species up quite a bit as well. I shuffled things around near the end as well, including replacing Yellow-legged Gull with Black-tailed Godwit

Otherwise, I have made few changes to my list of the next 25 species to appear in Maine:
1) California Gull
2) Graylag Goose
3) Neotropic Cormorant
4) Roseate Spoonbill
5) Ross’s Gull
6) Fieldfare
7) Hammond’s Flycatcher
8) Bermuda Petrel
9) Black-chinned Hummingbird
10) Spotted Towhee
11) Audubon’s Shearwater (on “hypothetical” list, but I think the record is a good one)
12) Little Stint
13) Anna’s Hummingbird
14) Redwing
15) Barolo Shearwater
16) Allen’s Hummingbird
17) Black-tailed Gull
18) Common Ground-Dove
19) Western Wood-Pewee
20) Spotted Redshank
21) Gray Flycatcher
22) Black-tailed Godwit
23) Brown-chested Martin
24) Long-billed Murrelet
25) Common Scoter

Personally, I added two species to my own “State List” this year, the Brewer’s Sparrow (not on my predictions list) during my MonhegZen Spring Migration Weekend:

And, on the MonhegZen Fall Migration Weekend, I finally added Yellow-headed Blackbird to my state list (after moving it out if the top 10 for the first year, dropping it all the way down to #24 for some reason – probably out of frustration about still not having seen one…it worked!)

(And yes, this is why birders go to Monhegan Island!)

Once again, I didn’t make it up north to look for American Three-toed Woodpeckers (#2), which were again reliable near Baxter State Park, and despite Great Skua (#3) being seen regularly off of Bar Harbor this summer, I only made it offshore on a whale watch there once in October – on a skua-free day. I did not see the reported Western Grebe (#9) off of Harpswell last week, and I missed the Crested Caracara three times! I also did not chase a Tundra Swan (#12) in Winterport in October, or a Virginia’s Warbler (long list) on Monhegan. I also did not see a Cerulean Warbler (long list) that was on Monhegan this fall as well.

So, without any further ado, here are my predictions for the next 25 species to be added to my personal list here in Maine (with quite a bit of reshuffling this year):
1) American Three-toed Woodpecker
2) Great Skua
3) Eurasian Collared-Dove
4) Slaty-backed Gull
5) Gyrfalcon
6) Graylag Goose
7) Say’s Phoebe
8) Western Grebe
9) American White Pelican
10) Boreal Owl
11) Fork-tailed Flycatcher
12) Tundra Swan
13) Yellow Rail
14) Sabine’s Gull
15) Franklin’s Gull
16) Black-bellied Whistling-Duck
17) California Gull
18) Ivory Gull
19) Calliope Hummingbird
20) Cerulean Warbler
21) White Ibis
22) Gull-billed Tern
23) Hammond’s Flycatcher
24) Loggerhead Shrike
25) Neotropic Cormorant

So there it is, the annual list. Now, it’s time to go birding!

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Maine Birding Field Notes

Trip Reports, Essays, Rare Bird Reports, and More from Derek Lovitch's and Freeport Wild Bird Supply's birding in Maine and beyond.

Tag Archives: predictions

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The 2017 Maine Bird Predictions Blog

The 2016 Maine State List (and my own) Predictions Blog.

2015 Maine State List Predictions