It’s once again time for my annual Predictions Blog, where I view into my crystal binoculars and attempt to forecast some of the “new” birds to grace the State of Maine – and then my own personal state list – in the coming year.

I was busy this year. Lots of birding tours here in New England, vacations to the Dominican Republic and the Gaspe of Quebec, a scouting trip through the Gulf of Maine, an even further diminished interest in “chasing” when I am actually home, and a lot more time spent casually birdwatching on our property – more and more my time is spent observing whatever is in front of me, instead of searching for rarities. I didn’t even spend much time at Sandy Point this fall, although weather had a lot to do with that.

Sandy Point Morning Flights: September – October, 2024.

There are several reasons for this change of motivation, but that’s a blog for another day. I did put in some concerted effort during a wild fall “rarity season,” but for the most part, my yard list in Durham was the only real priority. A Yellow-throated Vireo on the intriguing date of 7/21 was our 153^rd species here since we purchased the property a little more than 4 years ago. Not a bad start! A Gray Catbird that showed up today, January 2^nd, as I wrote this, is our first winter record (of course), and a good sign for productive yard birding in the new year!

But back to the rarities. Let us start as usual with a look at last year’s prognostications and see how I did. I also did a little more reflecting on my own evolving birding, as well as.

Two species were added to Maine’s list this year, a Ferruginous Hawk at the Auburn Airport on July 14^th and an Anhinga in Somerville for 6 days in July. I saw neither. Both times we were in Quebec. I think it’s a sign.

While Ferruginous Hawk was only marginally on my radar, Anhinga had been relegated to the Honorable Mentions list as northern reports have really dried up for a spell. I was wrong.

So, neither of the first state records were on my list, but I will do a little reshuffling to add two recent splits to the list: Scopoli’s Shearwater and European Herring Gull. 

Scopoli’s Shearwater – recently split by most authorities from Cory’s Shearwater – likely has already occurred here. I saw at least one set of photos from this past summer that looked good to me, but the identification is a challenge, and we’re only learning how to identify them semi-reliably in the field (study up!). But I have little doubt that if we looked at every past photo of Cory’s Shearwater that has been taken in Maine, coupled with renewed scrutiny of the pattern on the underwing of the outer primaries of recent and future birds, that this will soon be confirmed in Maine.

Likewise, “American Herring Gull” (that’s our bird) and “European Herring Gull” are now separate species. European Herring Gull is another cryptic species that has also likely already occurred here, but it is another challenging, cutting-edge identification made more challenging by the extensive variation exhibited by our bird. Add to this Vega Gull from Asia, hybrids, and well…my Gull ID Workshop is open for registration (although I will not yet dive down the rabbit hole of American vs European Herring Gull…we’ll spend more time with Herring Gull vs “damn seagull.”

So here’s my list of the Next 25 Species to be found in Maine:

1. Scopoli’s Shearwater
2. Neotropical Cormorant
3. European Herring Gull
4. Black-chinned Hummingbird
5. California Gull
6. Limpkin
7. Gray Heron
8. Bermuda Petrel
9. Graylag Goose
10. Little Stint
11. Audubon’s Shearwater
12. Common Shelduck
13. Anna’s Hummingbird
14. Heerman’s Gull
15. Common Ground-Dove
16. Allen’s Hummingbird
17. Spotted Redshank
18. Lewis’s Woodpecker
19. Ross’s Gull
20. Black-capped Petrel
21. Lesser Nighthawk
22. Dusky Flycatcher
23. Painted Redstart
24. Hooded Oriole
25. White Wagtail

As for me in 2024, I did add four species to my personal State List: Willow Ptarmigan (not on list), Tropical Kingbird (Honorable Mention), American White Pelican (#2), and Common Gull (#24).

The most surprising was the second state record of Willow Ptarmigan that Jeannette and I were lucky enough to catch up with in a private backyard in Phippsburg on August 28^th. After being seen on Cliff Island in early May, it miraculously appeared in Phippsburg in a yard of a home that the friend of a birder was house sitting for! Then it showed up in a nearby yard where limited access was granted. Jeannette and I were in the right place at the right time when news broke, and were among the first to try out the arrangements and see then bird. Unfortunately, a couple of days later, the ptarmigan likely fell victim to an owl.

A Tropical Kingbird at the Skelton Dam Boat Launch in Dayton was found by a dog-walker and birdwatcher at the end of June, but news finally made it to the birding community in the middle of July, and I raced down to see it on the 18^th. It has been on and off the Top 25 list for many years, but I’ve left it off for the last few. No complaints though, as the second modern, and third overall, state record was chaseable this time.

Later in the year, the birding community lost a great one with the passing of Davis Finch. Years ago, I would see Davis and Denny Abbott at a rarity, and they would be among the first people I would call when I found one (yup, we used to only call people to alert them to rarities!). Davis and I had a tradition where my final words as we were departing was always “See you at the ____” and pick a rarity. In fact, that might have even been the inspiration for this annual blog. This tradition became even more meaningful when I once left with “See you at the Ash-throated Flycatcher!”  And a short time later, I found an Ash-throated Flycatcher (at the Saco Riverwalk, the second state record in November of 2006). Davis and Denny were the first to know, and I’ll never forget Davis saying “why the heck were you birding this dump?” as he offered congratulations on the find – a state bird for all (it has been cleaned up a lot since then and it has become a significant birding hotpsot). While there were plenty of other birds mentioned in between, for the last few years, it was always “see you at the Tropical Kingbird!”  I heard someone say he was driven to Dayton to see the kingbird. I hope this is true…he really wanted that bird!

Moving on, I finally caught up with an American White Pelican on 8/26, conveniently close to home/work. Following a Saturday Morning Birdwalk, Kevin Harding and Brandon Baldwin stopped by Wharton Point in Brunswick on their respective ways home and found the pelican. They called the store (yup, phone calls still work), and I dropped what I was doing to head over. The bird was really far by the time I arrived, so Brandon and I walked down the Maquoit Bay Conservation Land trail for a closer look. A little while later, as other arrived, the pelican flew right over our heads for an incredible view!

And finally, after Common Gulls were found in Eastport in February and on Matinicus Rock in September, Evan Obercian found one much more conveniently located at the Samoset Resort in Rockland on Halloween. I was finally able to sneak away four long days later, getting to enjoy the bird on November 3^rd.

Of course, I missed more than I saw, both with travel and a lessening interest in chasing. I missed a total of four Franklin’s Gulls (#1): Seapoint Beach in Kittery on 6/30, Hill’s Beach in Biddeford on 7/22, Sewall Beach on MDI on 9/14, and one in Wells on 9/15. I’ll catch up with these notorious one-day/hour wonders some day in Maine!

The aforementioned Anhinga and Ferruginous Hawks were not on my Top 25 list, nor was the Mountain Bluebird that was on Monhegan in early May – before twice-daily ferry service had begun. I did take a day trip with a friend for the heckuva it six days after it was last seen. There was also a Brown Booby (#6) that wasn’t chaseable on Seal Island in August, but had we not been in Quebec twice, it would have been a truly incredible birding year for me in Maine. Oh well, a weekend with friends and 100,000 Northern Gannets more than made up for it.

So with those hits and misses, my updated list of the Top 25 Next State Birds for Me is now:

1. Franklin’s Gull (will this finally be the year?)
2. Neotropic Cormorant
3. Brown Pelican
4. California Gull
5. Brown Booby
6. Crested Caracara
7. Slaty-backed Gull
8. Boreal Owl
9. Calliope Hummingbird
10. Graylag Goose
11. Cerulean Warbler
12. Gull-billed Tern
13. Pacific Golden-Plover
14. Limpkin
15. Wood Stork
16. Black-chinned Hummingbird
17. Brewer’s Blackbird
18. Yellow Rail
19. Scopoli’s Shearwater (undoubtably after further review of photos!)
20. Virginia’s Warbler
21. Western Wood-Pewee
22. Red-necked Stint
23. European Herring Gull
24. Gray Heron
25. Heerman’s Gull

Well there ya have it, let’s see what 2025 brings, at least when it comes to rare birds in Maine.