It’s once again time for my annual Predictions Blog, where I view into my crystal binoculars and attempt to forecast some of the “new” birds to grace the State of Maine – and then my own personal state list – in the coming year.

I feel like I could have just recycled my blog from 2021.  “…Worst Year Ever.”  Ha. 2021 replied, “hold my beer!”  That all being said, a complete summary would show the full picture, with all its ups and downs (and there were a lot of downs), but undoubtably with many happy moments contained within.  That’s all beyond the scope of this blog. I’ll just stick to the birds.

Of course, nothing compares – or perhaps, ever will compare! – to the headliner of 2021: The Steller’s Sea-Eagle. No, this was not on my predictions list – or anyone else’s at the start of the year. That being said, following reports this summer in New Brunswick, November in Nova Scotia, and then December in Massachusetts, there is no doubt it would have been optimistically added to the list for 2022…had it not shown up in Georgetown on December 30^th (or perhaps earlier).  This mega-of-megas, one of the world’s most extraordinary birds, might render almost any other first state record pedestrian, or at least anticlimactic.

At the very least, it does overshadow the only other chaseable first Maine record for this year: Redwing, a European thrush. What was the “bird of the year” until three days remaining on the calendar, this bird delighted many hundreds of birders at Capisic Pond Park in Portland at the end of January 2021 – which seems like eons ago! The first state record, however, actually came earlier in the month, when a Redwing – perhaps the very same individual – was a one-day wonder on private property in Steuben. Lucky for all, the next one/sighting of it showed up on public property and stayed around for about three weeks.  Redwing was #16 on my “Next 25 Species for Maine” list.

And finally, a Masked Booby surprised observers on Mount Desert Rock on August 9^th.  With increasing observations of tropical seabirds north of the Gulf Stream, this is less shocking than it would have been a few years ago.

Three first state records in one year is pretty good, and the quality of this year’s roster is impressive. How will 2022 compare?

Therefore, my list of next 25 species to occur in Maine receives just a few tweaks.

• 1) Neotropical Cormorant
• 2) Graylag Goose
• 3) California Gull
• 4) Spotted Towhee
• 5) Hammond’s Flycatcher
• 6) Bermuda Petrel
• 7) Black-chinned Hummingbird
• 8) Common Shelduck
• 9) Trumpeter Swan (of wild, “countable” origin) *Edit, 4/1. See Below*
• 9) Audubon’s Shearwater – on “hypothetical” list, but I think the record is good.
• 10) Little Stint
• 11) Anna’s Hummingbird
• 12) “Western” Flycatcher (Pacific-slope/Cordilleran)
• 13) Common Ground-Dove
• 14) Allen’s Hummingbird
• 15) Spotted Redshank
• 16) Painted Redstart
• 17) Ross’s Gull
• 18) Black-capped Petrel
• 19) Lesser Nighthawk
• 20) Barolo Shearwater (a good record, with photographs, unlike my “it has to be this” sight record!)
• 21) Elegant Tern
• 22) Kelp Gull
• 23) Black-tailed Gull
• 24) Hooded Oriole
• 25) Common Scoter

***EDIT, 3/31 – When a Trumpeter Swan arrived in Scarborough Marsh, it was noted as the 2nd State Record. I realized that the 2011 bird from Fortune’s Rock Beach in Biddeford was indeed added to the “official” state list. I had counted it on my own list (so no change below), but I never followed up on its status, apparently. With the rapidly expanding introduced populations in the Northeast, along with increasing amount of states “declaring” the bird “established,” I’m shocked it’s taken this long to get a second one. The predictions list has been updated accordingly.***

Personally, I was fortunate to add two birds to my own state list this year. And they were good ones!

The aforementioned Redwing got things started. It was not on my Top 25 list because I expected it to be a one-day wonder in some far-off place, never to be seen again. It was. But then it, or another bird – there were several Redwings in the Northeast part of the continent last winter – debuted at Capisic. That was fun.

Did I mention there was a Steller’s Sea-Eagle? That was my 391st species in Maine!

So neither of my state birds were on my Predictions list. I’ll be OK though, all things considered.

And, as usual, there were also a handful of potential state birds for me that I did not see.  Franklin’s Gull appears to be on its way to becoming my nemesis, with another one this year: a one-day wonder at the Sanford Lagoons on 9/9. It was #3 on my list.

A Sandwich Tern at Mount Desert Rock on 7/6 was on my Honorable Mention list, as was Brown Booby, which has started to become regular north of Cape Cod.  There was one off of Biddeford Pool on 7/8 ahead of Tropical Storm Elsa, followed by one on Mount Desert Rock August 2^nd through 9^th (not an easy place to chase!). 

So a few tweaks to my list for my next additions to my personal state list are as follows:

• 1) American White Pelican
• 2) Neotropic Cormorant
• 3) Franklin’s Gull
• 4) Brown Pelican
• 5) Graylag Goose
• 6) California Gull
• 7) Black-bellied Whistling-Duck
• 8) Brown Booby
• 9) Slaty-backed Gull
• 10) Boreal Owl
• 11) Calliope Hummingbird
• 12) Common Ringed Plover
• 13) Cerulean Warbler
• 14) White Ibis
• 15) Gull-billed Tern
• 16) Hammond’s Flycatcher
• 17) Spotted Towhee
• 18) Pacific Golden-Plover
• 19) Wood Stork
• 20) Ross’s Gull
• 21) Black-chinned Hummingbird
• 22) Brewer’s Blackbird
• 23) Yellow Rail
• 24) Virginia’s Warbler
• 25) Common Shelduck

So let’s see what 2021 (edited: 2022) brings to the Maine birding world. A return to a sense of normalcy would be a nice start, however.